Stocks were volatile throughout the week as investors reacted to the economic news, and tumbled after the disappointing Friday morning jobs report. Investors embraced the safety of U.S. Treasuries and that caused the yield on 10-year Treasury notes to dip below 3%. As recently as early April, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielded 3.60%.
Global economic news
U.S. jobs growth slows, unemployment up in MayFar fewer U.S. jobs were created last month than had been expected. Only 54,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy for the month, according to the U.S. Department of Labor’s monthly jobs report. The consensus expectation among economists was for 160,000 new jobs to have been created. The unemployment rate rose to 9.1% from 9.0%. A slight decrease, to 8.9%, had been forecast. The report also revealed that in May 45% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for more than six months.The numbers were disappointing, even after a preview had been provided by the private-sector jobs report released Wednesday by payroll services giant ADP, which found a growth of only 36,000 jobs in May in its survey, far fewer than had been expected. Weekly jobless claims also fell by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 422,000 during the week ended May 28. The four-week moving average of new claims dropped by 14,000 to 425,500. Despite the improvements, the numbers concern economists, because the weekly claims figure remains above 400,000, which is seen as a threshold indicator of the health of the job market.
Prospects improve for Greek bailout
Optimism rose this week that a new package of financial aid would be available for Greece, as Germany considered dropping a push to have Greek bonds rescheduled. For weeks, Germany had argued that private investors in Greek bonds should bear part of the burden of any new bailout package. Senior eurozone officials reportedly agreed in principle to a new three-year aid program for Greece. The agreement comes after Moody's downgraded Greek debt another three notches to "Caa1" from "B1" and warned that extended fiscal austerity would likely deepen and prolong recession. Moody's also cut the ratings of eight Greek banks on Friday.
Eurozone manufacturing growth wanesThe Markit Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 54.6, a seven-month low, from 58 in April. This was the index’s sharpest drop since November 2008. Additionally, the final May reading for the Markit Eurozone Composite Output Index, which measures private-sector business activity, fell to 55.8 in May from 57.8 in April.
U.S. home prices slide againU.S. home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter, reaching their lowest levels since 2002, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Homebuyers were apparently affected by uncertain job prospects amid persistently high unemployment. A high level of foreclosures continues to weigh on home sales and prices.
Consumer confidence falls in the United StatesU.S. consumer confidence fell to a reading of 60.8, from 66.0 in April, according to the Conference Board consumer confidence index, amid pessimism about job prospects. The Chicago Institute for Supply Management recorded a sharp drop in its business barometer, to 56.6 in May from 67.6 in April. The May reading was the index’s lowest since November 2009.
Moody’s warns of possible U.S. debt downgradeIn a signal to the U.S. government, Moody’s Investors Service warned that it might lower the U.S. government’s credit rating if Congress fails to increase the nation’s debt limit in the coming weeks. The warning serves as a reminder of what is at stake if a budget stalemate persists. One consequence would be higher interest rates at a time when the U.S. economic recovery is showing renewed vulnerability.
Moody’s may downgrade Japan’s debt ratingMoody’s warned that it might lower its sovereign debt rating for Japan, as that country continues to struggle with deflation, flat economic growth, and high government debt. The tsunami and earthquake on March 11 added to existing problems, likely tipping Japan into a double-dip recession.
German jobless hits record lowGermany’s jobless rate reached a new low in May, with a 7% unemployment rate, down slightly from 7.1% in April, and the lowest unemployment rate since records were first kept in 1999.
Canadian economy rolls forwardCanada’s economy grew at a 3.9% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2011, more than twice the rate of that of growth in the United States, Canada’s largest trading partner. The Canadian economy benefited from businesses replenishing inventories and investing more to remain competitive. However, both consumer and government spending were weak.
Global corporate news
Japanese, U.S. auto sales reflect parts shortagesAuto sales declined in both the United States and Japan in May, hurt in part by the widespread shortage of parts after the severe disruptions caused by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. In Japan, May auto sales fell by 38% from a year earlier. However, the decline in vehicle sales varied sharply from one carmaker to the next. Toyota Motor’s vehicle sales dropped 57%, Honda Motor fell 35%, and Nissan Motor’s sales slipped just 16%.In the United States, vehicle sales slipped slightly. However, while Ford Motor and General Motors’ sales were fairly flat, Chrysler Group had a 10% rise in sales, and Hyundai Motor’s sales soared more than 20% as its fuel-efficient, relatively low-priced vehicles rose in popularity, and the Korean automaker benefited from shortages at Japanese firms Toyota and Honda.
American retailers post mixed resultsRetailers registered mixed results in May. Costco reported a 13% increase in May for stores open for more than a year, aided by gasoline sales and favorable foreign exchange rates. Macy’s also reported robust numbers, with strong results across the board, including upscale Bloomingdales stores and its online operations. Upscale retailers Saks and Nordstrom both reported a healthy increase in sales. Among retailers with disappointing results were Target, Victoria’s Secret, and JCPenney.
Groupon to file IPOSocial buying web site Groupon filed to go public with an IPO that could value the company at as much as $20 billion. On Thursday, the two-and-a-half-year-old e-commerce company, filed to go public, looking for raise up to $750 million. Groupon has grown rapidly but has incurred huge losses, and faces impending competition from Internet giants Google and Facebook. The IPO comes on the back of LinkedIn's successful IPO in late May.
Nokia issues profit warningNokia, the world’s largest mobile phone maker, warned that its core business might not earn a profit this quarter, as the Finnish company faces rigorous competition from rivals Apple and Google, whose phones — particularly smartphones — and operating platforms are surging in popularity.
Apple adds clarity by offering glimpse at iCloudApple said it would announce next week a new Internet service called iCloud that would allow people to gain access to music, photos, and videos on multiple devices, including computers and cell phones, without needing to sync those devices. Apple has signed contracts with major music labels to license their recordings. The pre-announcement was unusual for Apple, which usually remains tightlipped about new products until they are officially unveiled.
The week ahead
- GDP data for Japan and the European Union to be released Wednesday, June 8.
- U.S. jobless claims to be reported Thursday, June 9.
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released Thursday, June 9.
- German CPI to be reported on Friday, June 10.
- U.S. import and export prices to be reported Friday, June 10.
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.
The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.
Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report. Full holdings are also available on the individual Fund Profile tab in the Products and Performance section of mfs.com.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times; Forbes.com; CNNMoney.com; msnbc.com.
--see disclaimer below--
.bmp)
