Saturday, March 6, 2010

Week in Review: Stocks rally as reports indicate muted economic improvement


U.S. economic news

Job losses ease, according to several reportsU.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by a better-than-expected 36,000 in February, as noted in a report from the U.S. Department of Labor. The unemployment rate remained steady at 9.7%. A series of winter storms on the East Coast last month are expected to have lowered payrolls temporarily because they caused some businesses to close for a few days. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a loss of 75,000 jobs, primarily because of the weather.

A private report issued earlier in the week by ADP Employer Services indicated that U.S. companies cut just 20,000 jobs in February, the smallest decline in two years. Although the Labor Department’s payroll figures were affected by the severe snowstorms, as some hourly workers would have earned less because of days missed due to storms, ADP’s report is based on a computerized log that is not affected in this way.

Weekly jobless claims declined to 469,000, from 498,000, for the week ended February 26, less than the forecasted 475,000. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 470,750 from 474,250. Consumer confidence rose in January for the third consecutive month, according to the Conference Board.

Signs of economic recovery: Fed Beige Book, ISM, retail sales
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Beige Book, a survey of the nation’s 12 economic regions, gave further support to those who believe that the U.S. economy is moving forward, albeit slowly and deliberately. The economy improved in nine of the Fed’s 12 regions in February. And while improvements are being described as modest, that gradual growth has not led to any signs of inflation or is it expected to for some time. That should be positive for the stock and bond markets, which generally do not respond well to inflationary signs because they lead to higher interest rates and may squeeze profit margins.

U.S. service industries are recovering from the recession, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s index of nonmanufacturing businesses, which rose to 53 in February from 50.5 in January. The February figure was the highest since October 2007, two months before the recession began. The ISM’s manufacturing gauge hit 56.5 in February, its seventh consecutive monthly increase.

Retail sales picked up in February. Same-store sales rose by 4% overall from a year earlier at 28 retailers that report through Thomson Reuters. More than 80% of retailers surveyed beat expectations as they cleared items from Christmas inventories without much markdown.

U.S. and global corporate news

Adidas profit tumblesGerman sportswear maker Adidas reported a 65% drop in quarterly net profit, and it lowered its forecast for 2010. The company, second only to Nike in its industry, earned 19 million euros in the fourth quarter of 2009, down from 54 million euros a year earlier. Sales fell 4.5%, and earnings were squeezed by rising input costs and the decline in the Russian ruble against the euro.

AB InBev net earnings lag expectations
Anheuser-Bush InBev reported 2009 fourth-quarter results that fell short of expectations. The world’s largest brewer earned $1.28 billion for the period, up sharply from a $29 million profit a year earlier, a figure that was skewed by one-time charges related to the merger of InBev and Anheuser-Busch and only partial results a year ago. The firm’s core earnings of $3.12 billion rose from $2.81 billion a year earlier but failed to meet expectations of $3.29 billion in profit.

Bayer’s earnings rise
German pharmaceutical firm Bayer saw its net profit rise to 153 million euros for the final quarter of 2009, up from 106 million euros a year earlier. However, earnings were lowered by 80 million euros because of unfavorable currency exchange rates.

Adecco witnesses U.S., French job rebound
Adecco SA, the world’s largest employment firm in sales, recorded a fourth-quarter net profit of 42 million euros following a 22 million euro year-earlier net loss as job markets in the United States and France began to recover.

Nissan recalls 500,000 vehicles
Japanese car manufacturer Nissan Motor is recalling more than 500,000 trucks, sport-utility vehicles, and minivans in North America, Asia, and Europe because of problems with brake pedal pins and fuel gauges.

Global economic news

Greek government takes new steps to stave off crisisThe Greek government announced a new set of tax increases and payouts for public employers as it continued its efforts to reduce its country’s large budget deficit and allay fears that Greece might default on its debts. European Union officials had demanded deeper cuts before extending any financial bailout for the country. Included were increases in Greece’s sales tax as well as taxes on alcohol, cigarettes, and luxury goods.

Markets responded well to the moves, as the cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt against default in the credit-default-swap market fell. A Greek government bond sale raised 5 billion euros ($6.85 billion) by Thursday morning. The offer to pay 6.3% on 10-year notes attracted 14.5 billion euros in bids, a strong sign of confidence.

Eurozone inflation eases; retail sales fall
The annual inflation rate for 16 countries within the eurozone fell to 0.9% in February, down slightly from 1.0%. The European Central Bank held its key interest rate at 1% at its policy meeting Thursday as inflationary pressures remain contained. The ECB has held rates steady since May 2009.

Meanwhile, sales volume in the eurozone fell by 0.3% from December 2009 to January 2010. Sales declined 1.3% year over year from January 2009.
Eurozone growth slowed from 0.4% in the third quarter, when it emerged from recession, to 0.1% in the fourth quarter, the Eurostat statistics agency reported. Compared with figures from a year earlier, the Eurozone GDP fell 2.1% in the fourth quarter after a 4.1% year-to-year decline in the third quarter of 2009.

India’s exports and imports rise
India’s exports and imports both had robust growth in January, reflecting a recovery in global economic activity. While exports rose 11.5% in January from a year earlier, imports soared 35.5%. Oil imports rose 56% and non-oil imports grew 28.8% reflecting strong growth in economic activity in India.

Australia’s economy rebounds
Australia’s economy picked up pace in the fourth quarter as GDP rose 0.9% from the third quarter and 2.7% from the year-earlier period, according to a report from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. Australia’s economy was boosted by business investment, a surge of new construction, growth in corporate profits, and government spending.

Mixed reports on
 Russian economyRussia’s economy stalled in February, with a quarter-to-quarter decline in GDP of 0.1%, according to VTB Capital, the investment banking unit of a Russian bank. The Russian economy grew just 0.5% from February 2009 to February 2010. Unemployment reached 9.2% in January, its highest level since March 2009. However, a report on the global economy issued on Friday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that the leading economic indicators for Russia rose, along with those of China and all members of the Group of Seven large developed economies. The report said the leading indicators for Brazil and India fell.

Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

The views expressed here are those of MFS® and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS investment product. Individual securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.

Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; CNNMoney.com; Forbes Online; msnbc.com.

--see disclaimer below--

Friday, March 5, 2010

March Newsletter



The First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit 
Recent changes to the first-time homebuyer tax credit mean you might be able to benefit from the credit, even if you're not actually a first-time homebuyer. To take advantage of the credit, however, you have to act by May 1.
More Details

529 College Savings Plans vs. Roth IRAs
After the 2008/2009 market collapse, some parents have opted to trade the tax benefits of 529 plans for savings vehicles that don't have a "must-be-used-for-college" restriction. Just how does a favorite of the college savings world, a 529 college savings plan, stack up to a favorite of the retirement savings world, a Roth IRA, as an education-funding vehicle?
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10 Financial Terms Everyone Should Know
Understanding financial matters can be difficult because of the jargon used. Becoming familiar with these ten financial terms may help make your financial picture clearer.
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Ask the Experts: How do I unwind my QPRT? 
Real estate transferred to a qualified personal residence trust (QPRT) may have experienced less than anticipated appreciation or even depreciation. Consequently, one of the purposes of the QPRT--removing future appreciation from an estate--may go unachieved. Some in this position may be inclined to "unwind" (undo) the QPRT. That, however, may not be the best option.
More Details
Ask the Experts: My QPRT has terminated. What do I do now?
If the grantor outlives the term of a QPRT, the residence passes to the remainder beneficiaries. At this time, several things need to happen. Here's a quick checklist.
More Details

--see disclaimer below--

Recent Changes and Items Worth Noting

Special rules apply to charitable donations for Haiti relief efforts
If you make a qualified charitable contribution after January 11, 2010, and before March 1, 2010, for relief efforts associated with the January 12, 2010, earthquake in Haiti, you can treat the contribution as if it were made on December 31, 2009. As a result, if you itemize deductions on Form 1040, Schedule A, you can elect to claim the deduction for the Haitian relief contribution on your 2009 federal income tax return. To qualify, the contribution must be made in cash. To facilitate charitable donations made via text messages, a telephone bill showing the name of the organization, and the date and amount of the contribution, will satisfy charitable deduction recordkeeping requirements.

Time running out for first-time homebuyer's tax credit
If you're in the market for a new home and hope to take advantage of the first-time homebuyer tax credit, you'll need to purchase a principal residence before May 1, 2010 (or before July 1, 2010 if you enter into a written binding contract prior to May 1, 2010). If you--and your spouse, if you're married--did not own any other principal residence during the three-year period ending on the date of purchase, the credit is worth up to $8,000 ($4,000 if you're married and file separate returns). If you--and your spouse, if you're married--have maintained the same principal residence for at least five consecutive years in the eight-year period ending at the time you purchase a new principal residence, the credit is worth up to $6,500 ($3,250 if you're married and file separate returns).
The credit is reduced if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) exceeds $125,000 ($225,000 if married filing a joint return) and is completely eliminated if your MAGI reaches $145,000 ($245,000 if married filing a joint return). You can't claim the first-time homebuyer tax credit if the purchase price of your principal residence exceeds $800,000. Other limitations and provisions also apply.

President's proposed 2011 budget offers Congress multiple initiatives
The proposed 2011 budget submitted by President Obama offers multiple new initiatives, including several small business tax incentives, provisions intended to promote college affordability, and tax benefits targeting the middle class. The budget that ultimately emerges from Congress will likely differ significantly from that proposed by the President, but the proposed budget is valuable in that it provides a framework for discussion over the next few months. The proposed budget includes:
  • For businesses -- A new tax credit of $5,000 for each new hire made by an employer, a one-year extension of 2009 bonus depreciation and Section 179 expensing limits, and requirements for employers who do not offer retirement plans to implement automatic IRAs for employees
  • For students -- Expanded Pell Grant limits, a permanent American Opportunity tax credit, and a proposal to strengthen income-based repayment plans for student loans (overburdened borrowers would pay only 10% of discretionary income in loan payments and remaining debt would be forgiven after 20 years)
  • For individual taxpayers -- A return of the top two marginal tax rates to 39.6% and 36% in 2011, and an expanded 28% tax bracket; a permanent extension of the current 0% and 15% rates on long-term capital gain, with a new 20% rate for higher-income individuals; permanent extension of the federal estate tax and the alternative minimum tax (AMT) rules and exemption amounts, at 2009 levels

New credit card provisions effective this week
The Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act of 2009 included several provisions that became effective on February 22, 2010. Some of these changes could affect you:
  • Credit card companies are prohibited from increasing annual percentage rates (APRs) that apply to existing balances unless (1) the index on which the rate is based changes, (2) the APR was a promotional rate that has expired, (3) you failed to comply with a hardship workout plan, or (4) you're more than 60 days past due on the account; if an increase in APR is the result of you falling 60 days past due on the account, the rate will be restored to what it was before the increase if you make timely minimum payments for six months
  • If different APRs apply to separate portions of an outstanding balance, the amount of any payment beyond the minimum payment due must be applied to the portion of the balance with the highest APR
  • If you're under age 21, you won't be able to get credit unless you have a cosigner over age 21 or can demonstrate an ability to repay the debt
  • You can't be charged an over-the-limit fee unless you authorize the credit card company to complete the transaction that causes the balance to exceed your credit limit

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Signs of uneven recovery pressure stocks - For the week ended February 26, 2010

Since I was traveling last weekend to Detroit, I didn't get this information out until just now.

U.S. economic news

Signs of an uneven recovery were evident this week as the labor market struggled to rebound
The U.S. economy grew more than initially reported in the fourth quarter of 2009. GDP expanded 5.9%, more than the 5.7% first reported, thanks to stronger business investment and a greater contribution from inventories, which added 3.88 percentage points to GDP. The quarterly growth rate was the most that the economy has experienced in six years. Investment in software and equipment grew at the fastest pace in almost a decade. However, the report showed consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, remained constrained by the high unemployment rate. Reports this week showed first-time unemployment claims unexpectedly rose last week.

U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected in February, to the lowest level since April 2009. The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 46 from 56.5 in January as the outlook for jobs deteriorated. Concerns about the economy and labor market pushed the current conditions portion of the index to its lowest level in 27 years. The report indicated that a lack of job growth and impaired household finances could restrain consumer spending. Without sustained growth in this largest part of the economy the recovery may be slow to gain momentum.

The National Association of Realtors reported sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly declined for a second month in January. The drop is seen as an indication that the effect of the government's extension of the tax credit has been limited by a lack of job growth. Purchases fell 7.2%, the second-largest decline ever.
Home prices rose in December for the seventh month in a row, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, which showed that home prices in 20 cities rose 0.3% after falling 3.1% in December. Case-Shiller also reported that sales of new homes in the United States unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest level on record. Purchases declined 11% despite the extension of a government tax credit.

U.S. and global corporate news

AIG reports losses; India's Tata Motors and John Deere post profits
American International Group
posted a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss on charges tied to paying down its bailout debt and boosting commercial insurance reserves.
Coca-Cola, the world’s largest maker of soda, agreed to buy the North American operations of bottler Coca-Cola Enterprises in a deal valued at $12.3 billion. The agreement comes six months after PepsiCo brought its bottlers in-house to cut costs.
Tata Motors, India’s biggest auto maker by revenue, reported a $140.3 million profit for the third quarter thanks to a rebound in sales of its Jaguar and Land Rover models.
John Deere, the world’s largest maker of farm equipment, posted a first-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates, and the firm also raised its 2010 forecast.

Global economic news

E.U. pushes Greece to adopt tougher measures to cut deficit
The Wall Street Journal reported that the European Union pushed Greece to adopt new austerity measures to help the country slash its budget deficit four percentage points this year. Pressure has been mounting on Greece as officials from the E.U., International Monetary Fund, and European Central Bank have, since the beginning of the week, been meeting in Athens to evaluate Greece’s progress in cutting its budget deficit. Meanwhile Greece postponed plans to sell a minimum of $2 billion in global bonds in the United States and Asia.

Eurozone confidence falls

European confidence in the economic outlook unexpectedly worsened in February after the eurozone’s recovery almost stalled in the fourth quarter.

U.K. economy expands faster than expected; India’s economy hurt by dry weather
The U.K. economy reemerged from recession at a faster pace than initially reported in the fourth quarter amid a jump in services output. GDP rose 0.3% in the third quarter, more than the 0.1% reported earlier.
India’s expansion slowed in the fourth quarter after a dry monsoon season hurt farm output. GDP grew 6% from a year earlier after gaining 7.9% in the previous quarter. The government said the drop is a one-off and not reflective of a trend.
Japan’s consumer prices fell for an eleventh month, a trend that increased pressure on the government and central bank to take measures to eradicate deflation, which is hampering the country's recovery.

Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

The views expressed here are those of MFS®and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS investment product. Individual securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.

Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times; boston.com.

--see disclaimer below--

Monday, March 1, 2010

Market Week: March 1, 2010

The Markets

Stocks struggled to stay afloat during a week of largely disappointing economic data. The small-cap Russell 2000 was the only major index left in positive territory for the year. Doubts about European debt continued to plague international equities. That helped drive increased interest in U.S. Treasury bonds, whose prices rose as yields fell.

 Market/Index 2009 Close Prior Week As of 2/26 Week Change YTD Change
DJIA 10428.05 10402.35 10325.26 -.74% -.99%
NASDAQ 2269.15 2243.87 2238.26 -.25% -1.36%
S&P 500 1115.10 1109.17 1104.49 -.42% -.95%
Russell 2000 625.39 631.62 628.56 -.48% .51%
Global Dow 1984.48 1893.58 1891.56 -.11% -4.68%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.85% 3.78% 3.61% -17 bps -24 bps

Last Week's Headlines
  • New home sales plunged 11.2% in January compared to December and were down 6.1% from January 2009. Though revisions and statistical errors can distort the numbers from month to month, it's the third consecutive monthly decline, and the lowest monthly level of new home sales since the Commerce Department began keeping records in 1963. Sales of existing homes also fell 7.2% in January.
  • Gross Domestic Product in Q4 2009 actually grew 0.2% more than the original estimate of 5.7%.
  • The SEC voted to adopt an alternative uptick rule, which would curb short selling in a stock once it has fallen 10% in intraday trading. The new rule, which will go into effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register, requires that once that circuit breaker has been tripped, any short sales for the rest of that day and the next must be executed at a price above the current highest national bid. However, the SEC stopped short of reinstating the original rule, which required all short sales to take place on an uptick.
  • Home prices in the 20 cities tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller index fell 0.2% in December, and were down 3.1% from a year earlier.
  • After three straight months of increases, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence dropped sharply in February, falling from 56.5 to 46.0--its lowest level since last April.
  • Orders for civilian aircraft, which more than doubled in January, pushed up the month's durable goods orders by 3%, the biggest increase since July. However, excluding transportation, orders fell 0.6%.
  • Bond rating services threatened further downgrades of their ratings for Greek sovereign debt. The financially troubled country is struggling to balance the need for budget cuts with public protests against them.
Eye on the Week Ahead
Bond investors will be watching an auction of 10-year bonds in Greece in light of the threatened rating downgrade. Friday's unemployment numbers are likely to once again be key.

Key data releases: Personal income/spending, manufacturing, construction spending (3/1); pending home sales, productivity (3/4); unemployment/nonfarm payrolls (3/5).

Data source: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

--see disclaimer below--