Friday, March 25, 2011

Week in Review: Positive growth and earnings reports push global markets higher

Global economic news

U.S. economy grew 3.1% in the fourth quarterThe U.S. economy grew more than had been estimated in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to revised figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The 3.1% annual rate of growth was led by a 4% rise in consumer spending. The 2010 U.S. economic growth rate of 2.9% was the country’s highest annual growth rate in five years. Corporate profits rose 29% last year, their largest annual gain since 1948.


Portugal's crisis deepens; prime minister resignsPortugal’s political and economic crisis deepened as it came closer to an international bailout after the country’s parliament rejected a proposed austerity plan and the prime minister resigned. The cost of Portuguese borrowing hit a new high after the country’s debt was downgraded by two notches by Standard & Poor’s, to BBB from A, and Fitch cut its rating for Portugal to A-.


New eurozone bailout fund createdEuropean finance ministers set up a new bailout fund that will be able to lend €500 billion ($710 billion) to eurozone member nations in need. The fund, which will require €80 billion in cash from the 17 eurozone countries, will replace the current temporary fund in 2013.


U.S. consumer sentiment downConsumer sentiment in the United States fell more than expected in March on higher gasoline prices and in the wake of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 67.5, its lowest reading since November 2009, from 77.5 in February.


U.S. new home sales hit record lowSales of new single-family homes fell to a record low in February, with prices dipping to their lowest point since December 2003, according to a report from the Commerce Department. Home sales fell 16.9% in February from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted level of 250,000 units, the lowest since records began in 1963. February sales were down 28% from a year earlier.


U.S. existing home sales down 9.6%Sales of existing, or previously occupied, U.S. homes slid 9.6% in February to their lowest level in almost nine years, the National Association of Realtors reported. The results were worse than forecast.


U.S. jobless claims fallA trend of fewer first-time jobless claims continued in the week ended March 19, as unemployment benefits claims fell by 5,000 to 382,000. The four-week moving average fell to 385,250, its lowest level since July 2008. And, the total number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits declined by 2,000 to 3.72 million, the smallest amount since September 2008.


U.S. durable goods orders slowU.S. orders for durable goods fell 0.9% in February, the third decline in four months for manufacturers’ orders for goods meant to last at least three years. Despite the recent downturn, year-to-date orders are 7.6% higher than for the same period last year.


Japanese consumer prices continue to slideJapan’s core consumer price index fell 0.3% in February from a year earlier, the 24th consecutive month it has declined. Analysts are unsure what impact the March 11 earthquake and tsunami will have. Reconstruction spending could put pressure on prices to rise, possibly offset by weakening consumer spending.


Ireland's economy shrinksIreland’s gross domestic product shrank by 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the country’s Central Statistics Office. The country’s gross national product shrank 2.1% in 2010 after a 10.7% decline in 2009.


Eurozone recovery slowsEconomic recovery in the eurozone continued in March, but at a slower pace, according to Markit Economics’ composite purchasing managers' index, which fell to 57.5 from 58.2 in February.


U.K. inflation reaches 4.4%U.K. annual inflation rose at its fastest rate in more than two years in February, up from a 4% annual increase in January. Inflation now is at twice the Bank of England’s targeted 2% rate, putting pressure on the central bank to increase its interest rate. Contributing to higher inflation are increases in the cost of housing services such as water, electricity, gas, and other fuels.

Global corporate news

AT&T purchase of T-Mobile to be reviewed closelyAT&T has agreed to buy T-Mobile USA from Deutsche Telekom for $39 billion, creating the largest cellular company in the United States, and leaving only two other major U.S. competitors – Verizon and Sprint Nextel. However, the proposed deal is expected to face very close scrutiny and a political battle in Washington, as politicians consider the impact on competition, costs, and consumers.


Oracle income rises after its Sun acquisitionBusiness software developer Oracle reported a 78% jump in income on a 37% rise in revenue for its fiscal third quarter. Results were boosted by its acquisition of Sun Microsystems a year ago.


Japan’s manufacturers begin to resume operationsJapan’s automakers had mixed plans for resuming production after the earthquake. Nissan Motor restarted its auto assembly operations and parts manufacturing this week, while Toyota Motor plans to resume production of three hybrid models next Monday, March 28. Honda Motor extended the suspension of its two domestic auto assembly operations through April 3 and canceled orders for May. One issue affecting these firms was inconsistent power supply for makers of computer chips used in the vehicles. Manufacturing stoppages could curb global auto production – estimated at 75 million vehicles this year – by 5 million units.


U.S. Federal Reserve denies Bank of America dividend increaseThe Federal Reserve Board rejected a Bank of America proposal to increase its dividend in 2011. The central bank gave no reason for the rejection, which led observers to speculate that it had to do with results of the latest government stress tests for the nation’s 19 largest holding companies.


Inditex profit, sales rise on global expansionSpain’s Inditex, the world’s largest fashion retailer, posted a 32% rise in net profit in 2010. It plans to add up to 500 stores to its 5,044 existing stores in 77 countries this year. Included are 120 new stores slated for China, where Inditex already owns 143 stores.


Best Buy hurt by slow sales, tough competitionBig-box electronics retailer Best Buy saw its fourth-quarter earnings fall 16% on weak computer and television sales and stiff competition from online retailers and discount stores.

The week ahead

  • Japan’s industrial production report released Tuesday, March 29
  • U.S. consumer confidence survey results released Tuesday, March 29
  • European Union economic sentiment data released Wednesday, March 30
  • U.S. jobless claims data released Thursday, March 31
  • Bombardier earnings due Thursday, March 31
  • U.S. employment report released Friday, April 1
Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.

Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report. Full holdings are also available on the individual Fund Profile tab in the Products and Performance section of mfs.com.


Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times; Forbes.com; CNNMoney.com; msnbc.com.

--see disclaimer below--

Monday, March 21, 2011

MARKET WEEK: MARCH 21, 2011


The Markets

After the Japanese disaster returned domestic equities to roughly where they were on New Year's Eve, the indexes began rebounding on Thursday, though they couldn't repair all of the damage. The three-day selling streak cost the S&P 47 points, but almost half of that loss was regained by week's end. Ten-year Treasuries gained from safe-haven buying.
Market/Index2010 ClosePrior WeekAs of 3/18Week ChangeYTD Change
DJIA11577.5112044.0911858.52-1.54%2.43%
NASDAQ2652.872715.612643.67-2.65%-.35%
S&P 5001257.641304.281279.21-1.92%1.72%
Russell 2000783.65802.83794.66-1.02%1.40%
Global Dow2087.442138.292093.63-2.09%.30%
Fed. Funds.25%.25%.25%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries3.30%3.40%3.28%-12 bps-2 bps

Last Week's Headlines

  • As the nuclear and humanitarian crisis in Japan unfolded, experts began debating the extent and nature of its impact on the world's third-largest individual economy, and the potential reverberations elsewhere. The glass-half-full side argued that rebuilding will contribute to future economic growth. However, less optimistic analysts feared that at least in the short term, the loss of Japanese tourism, commodities purchases, employment opportunities, and investment dollars--not to mention the uncertain long-term environmental impact, especially if the reactor situation worsens--could impede the global economic recovery.
  • The Japanese yen hit a record high of $.0127 against the dollar on Friday as investors began exchanging foreign currencies for yen in anticipation of rebuilding efforts and fear that Japan might cut its purchases of U.S. Treasuries. However, the G-7 nations intervened by selling yen to help stabilize its value, which fell a bit over the weekend.
  • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in February, primarily because of higher food and energy costs (gas alone was up more than 19% from a year ago). The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the accelerating price increases helped push the annual consumer inflation rate to 2.1%, with food and energy accounting for roughly half of that increase.
  • Wholesale prices were up 1.6% in February, for a 5.6% increase since the same time last year. As with the Consumer Price Index, higher food and energy costs were the culprit; excluding food and energy, core prices were up only 0.2%, though it was the third straight monthly increase. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, core prices have now risen 1.8% from last year.
  • The Federal Reserve noted the increase in inflationary pressures, but said it expects recent price increases in energy and commodities to be temporary. Though it sees the economic recovery on a sounder footing, it said weaknesses in housing and overall construction continue to keep inflation in check. As it continues to monitor the situation, it plans to continue its QE2 bond purchases through the end of the second quarter.
  • Housing starts dropped a dramatic 22.5% from January, according to the Census Bureau, and were 20.8% below February 2010.
  • The Federal Reserve Board said U.S. industrial production reversed course in February, falling 0.1% after three straight months of increases. Unseasonably warm weather caused a 4.5% drop in utilities output but manufacturing output rose 0.4%.
  • The Treasury Department said taxpayers have received repayments of roughly $244 billion--more than 99%--of the $245 billion disbursed to banks under the TARP program to help stabilize the financial system in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Eye on the Week Ahead

With earnings season in the rear-view mirror and options expiration out of the way, there is little to distract investors from the simultaneous geopolitical, environmental, and humanitarian crises around the world. The Libyan and Bahraini conflicts will likely keep a spotlight on oil supply.
Key dates and data releases: home resales (3/21); new home sales (3/23); durable goods orders (3/24); final Q4 gross domestic product (3/25).

Data source: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Equities data reflect price change, not total return.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

--see disclaimer below--

Week in Review: Global markets volatile after Japanese disaster

Global economic news

U.S. import prices rise sharply, core inflation stableThe price of goods imported into the United States rose 1.4% in February from January, as costs for energy, food and industrial supplies increased, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. Overall, prices were 8.5% higher than a year earlier. Excluding oil products, import prices were 3.5% higher than in February 2010. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer prices rose by 0.5% from January to February, and prices in February were 2.1% higher than a year earlier. The annual underlying inflation rate — excluding energy and food — was 1.1% in February.


U.S. jobless claims drop; four-week average lowest since 2008
The number of first-time claims made for unemployment insurance fell by 16,000 to 385,000 in the week ended March 12, the Labor Department reported. The four-week average of new claims fell 7,000, to its lowest level since July 2008.


U.S. factory production increases againProduction in U.S. factories increased in February for the sixth straight month, but overall industrial output declined for the first time since October because unseasonably warm weather reduced consumption of gas and electricity. Industrial production is 12% higher than in June 2009, but still 6% from its pre-recession peak in September 2007.


U.S. regional manufacturing gauge hits 27-year highA gauge of manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic area rose in March to its highest level since January 1984. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general business activity index jumped to 43.4 in March, from 35.9 in February. The Philadelphia Fed’s new orders measure rose to 40.3 in March, its highest since November 1983.


U.S. Federal Reserve reassures investorsIn a volatile week, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board calmed the markets by upgrading its economic outlook and predicting that the inflationary impact of increased commodity prices would be transitory.


U.S. housing starts fallHousing starts in the United States fell in February to their slowest pace since April 2009. The drop in housing starts from January was the sharpest monthly plunge — 22.5% — since March 1984, according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Commerce.


Eurozone employment rises, output grows slightlyThe number of people employed across the eurozone increased in the fourth quarter of 2010, the first such increase in two years, according to data released by Eurostat, the EU’s statistics agency. Employment grew in Germany, France, and Italy, but fell in Spain and Portugal. Data on eurozone industrial output in January was positive as well. Industrial output grew 0.3% from December and 6.6% from January 2010, reported Eurostat.

Global corporate news

Disruption at Japanese automakers could have far-reaching impactProduction at various Japanese automakers was suspended for the week, and into next week in some cases, as the companies struggled with supply shortages, damages to their facilities, power outages, and in some cases, difficulties for employees in traveling to work. Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Suzuki Motor, Mazda Motor, Nissan Motor, and Isuzu Motors were all affected by interruptions. In the United States, General Motors said Thursday that production at a plant in Louisiana would be interrupted next week because of a shortage of parts from Japan.


Berkshire Hathaway to buy Lubrizol for $9 billionBerkshire Hathaway announced that it would purchase Lubrizol, a specialty chemical maker based in Ohio, for $9 billion in cash in one of the largest deals for Warren Buffett. Berkshire has $38 billion in cash available for such acquisitions.


U.S. Treasury 99% repaid for TARP fundsSix banks repaid the U.S. Department of the Treasury a total of $475 million in funds borrowed through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) this week. TARP was created in 2008 to help banks survive the credit crisis. To date, $244 billion of the $245 billion of money received through TARP has been repaid. The Treasury estimates that TARP bank programs will eventually generate a $20 billion profit for taxpayers.


FedEx has positive outlookFedEx maintained a bullish outlook for revenue despite hurdles presented by Japan’s crisis and unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. FedEx’s profit for the quarter ended February 28 was down 4% from a year earlier because of harsh weather and rising fuel prices. FedEx is considered an economic bellwether because of the vast extent of its shipments.


Lufthansa returns to a profitGerman airline Lufthansa earned a profit of 1.1 billion in 2010, after a loss of 34 million in 2009. Revenue for the airline rose 22% as passenger and cargo air traffic rose. Cost-cutting and higher ticket prices contributed to the profit.


Williams-Sonoma net profit up 28%Williams-Sonoma, a seller of housewares and home-decor products, grew its profit by 28% on strength in its direct-to-consumer business, which includes catalog and Web sales.

The week ahead

  • General Mills earnings due Wednesday, March 23
  • Oracle earnings due Thursday, March 24
  • U.S. durable goods orders released Thursday, March 24
  • U.S. initial jobless claims released Thursday, March 24
  • Japanese CPI data released Thursday, March 24
  • U.S. GDP data update due Friday, March 25
  • Germany’s Ifo business survey data to be released Friday, March 25
Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.

Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report. Full holdings are also available on the individual Fund Profile tab in the Products and Performance section of mfs.com.


Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times; Forbes.com; CNNMoney.com; msnbc.com.

--see disclaimer below--