For the week ended May 18, 2012
- Eurozone uncertainty heightened by Greek government crisis
- Italian, Spanish bank debt downgraded
- Japan rebounds while Chinese activity cools
- Facebook IPO raises $16 billion
- Fallout continues from JPMorgan trading loss
Broad stock market indices in Europe, Asia, and North America continued to fall, with many major stock indices down more than 3% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined on 11 of the past 12 trading days. The S&P 500 Index is at a four-month low. About $4 trillion has been lost from global equity markets this month, according to Bloomberg News. The euro hit a four-month low of $1.264 against the US dollar, and the price of a barrel of crude oil dipped below $93.
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US and global economic news
Greek drama unfolds with more uncertainty Uncertainty persisted around Greece’s government this week, as talks to form a coalition collapsed; Greece’s electorate will vote again next month. Critical questions remained, including whether Greece would honor its debt obligations, whether it would follow austerity measures that its electorate has largely repudiated, and whether Greece would leave the eurozone. Greek bank depositors grew nervous and withdrew €700 million (almost $900 million) from local banks Monday. Fitch downgraded its debt to CCC from B- in recognition of heightened risk that the country would not be able to remain in the eurozone.
Italian, Spanish bank debt downgradedMoody’s lowered debt ratings at 26 Italian banks, as government austerity measures have cut demand for loans, and 16 Spanish banks, as bad debts held by Spanish banks rose to a 17-year high. Moody’s cited concerns about the banks' exposure to Spain's critically weak economy and the ability of the Spanish government to support them in a crisis. The Italian bank downgrades note the banks' vulnerability to mounting loan defaults. Italy and Spain have both entered a double-dip recession.
Germany helps eurozone escape recession by a whiskerA strong rebound by Germany helped keep the eurozone from entering a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of contraction. The eurozone gross domestic product for the first quarter this year was unchanged following a 0.3% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2011. Germany’s GDP rose 0.5%, while France’s was unchanged, and Italy and Spain’s economic activity contracted 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively.
US economic reports remain largely upbeatUS housing starts rose more than expected in April, by 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000, the US Department of Commerce reported. The percentage of homeowners delinquent on their mortgages in the first quarter fell to the lowest level since 2008, with 11.8% of all mortgages at least 30 days past due or in foreclosure, down from 12.8% a year ago, and 14.7% two years ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Industrial production in the United States rose 1.1% in April, the most since December 2010, driven largely by motor vehicle sales. The US rate of consumer inflation was unchanged from March to April after increasing for three months. The consumer price index was up 2.3% in April from a year earlier, its smallest annual increase since February 2011. Core inflation (prices excluding food and energy) also rose 2.3% for the year. Weekly initial jobless claims were unchanged at 370,000 for the week ended May 12, the US Department of Labor reported.
Chinese foreign investment declinesForeign direct investment into China receded for the sixth consecutive month in April. For the first four months of 2012, foreign direct investment in China was 2.38% below the year-earlier period, influenced by the sluggish global economy. China’s central bank announced it would cut the reserve-requirement ratio for banks by 0.5 percentage point. The leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea are planning to begin free-trade negotiations this year and could create the world’s third largest free-trade zone after the North American Free Trade Agreement and the European Union.
Recovering Japanese GDP rises 4.1%Japan’s economy rebounded, growing at an annualized rate of 4.1% in the first quarter, fed by government spending and increased domestic demand. Public investment grew 5.4% for the quarter. Although government spending has supported Japan’s post-tsunami recovery, in contrast to Europe’s austerity measures, it is seen as unsustainable, given that Japan’s sovereign debt is twice the size of its economy, the highest level among industrialized countries.
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US and global corporate news
Much anticipated Facebook IPO raises $16 billionFacebook’s initial public offering sold 421.2 million shares at $38 each, raising $16 billion. Facebook’s IPO is the third largest in the history of the United States, behind those of General Motors and Visa. At a valuation of $104 billion, the social network’s market value is greater than that of McDonald’s, Citigroup, and almost all other well-established American companies. There’s wide divergence of opinion on whether Facebook is overhyped and overvalued or whether its base of 900 million users presents tremendous long-term potential. Facebook has been compared to a mining company sitting on valuable deposits that could take time to dig up and mine.
JPMorgan Chase trading loss leads to increased scrutinyFallout continued after the announcement last week of JPMorgan Chase’s $2 billion-plus derivatives-disaster trading loss, with speculation that it would lead to increasingly stringent financial regulations. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has been among the most vocal opponents to these regulations. Dimon is scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee sometime in June.
Wal-Mart, Home Depot profits top expectationsThe world’s largest retailer and the nation’s largest home-improvement retailer posted better than expected first-quarter earnings. Wal-Mart’s quarterly net income rose 10% on an 8.5% increase in revenue. Home Depot had a 27% increase in first-quarter earnings, aided by unseasonably warm weather in much of the United States. Sales rose 5.9% and the firm’s gross margin widened slightly.
Japanese banks prosper on heavy bond salesJapan’s three largest banks posted total profits of almost ¥2 trillion, or $25 billion, their best quarterly performance since before the global financial crisis began in 2008. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group’s results were all lifted by substantial gains from sales of Japanese government bonds, something that is likely to decline sharply moving forward, according to the banks’ executives.
Coty withdraws offer for AvonAfter Avon Products took too long to respond, would-be suitor Coty withdrew its offer of $10.7 billion for Avon and said it would explore other opportunities. Avon had rejected an earlier bid from Coty as uncertain and too stingy.
Hewlett-Packard plans job cutsHewlett-Packard is planning to cut its workforce by 25,000 to 30,000 employees, according to The Wall Street Journal. This would reduce its global employees by 8%. H-P has been struggling with declining revenue and profits for a couple of years.
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The week ahead
- US existing home sales data is released on Tuesday, May 22.
- Hewlett-Packard announces its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, May 23.
- The European Union releases flash results for its PMI Manufacturing Index on Thursday, May 24.
- Japan releases its Consumer Price Index data on Thursday, May 24.
- The University of Michigan issues its Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday, May 25.
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.
The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.
Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report. Full holdings are also available on the individual Fund Profile tab in the Products and Performance section of mfs.com.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times; Forbes.com; CNNMoney.com; msnbc.com.
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